Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

45.06 – 36.17

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 41.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.6 ±12.4

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX 28Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 32.15Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX -15.09Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.8 ±22.5

378The Circuit Stompers

Provisional

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 18.56Rank 52Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1585Scitobor Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 28Rank 29Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6947Savage Tumaz

Provisional

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX -10.39Rank 38Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 353, 4930, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 353, 4930, 48

Auto

5.6 13%

Teleop

21.9 50%

Endgame

16.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 378, 1585, 6947

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 378, 1585, 6947

Auto

18.0 49%

Teleop

14.5 40%

Endgame

4.1 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score45.1pts

Blue projected score36.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.9
Score range: 14–67
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 165 vs event baseline 122.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.6Season APEX162.8

5.6Auto18

21.9Teleop14.5

16Endgame4.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	23
teleop	53	21
endgame	40	5
foul	0	5
total	111	54

Result

Final score

111 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 41.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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