Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.6 – 106.15

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

192 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 114.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 412.5 ±13.3

639Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 44.86Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 51.86Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 25.88Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 448.8 ±16.1

1450XQ Robotix Team 1450

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 26.76Rank 50Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 71.68Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9016Syosset SuperSonics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 7.71Rank 46Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 639, 5528, 1591

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 639, 5528, 1591

Auto

29.8 28%

Teleop

61.0 57%

Endgame

16.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1450, 3015, 9016

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1450, 3015, 9016

Auto

35.3 33%

Teleop

60.8 57%

Endgame

9.7 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score122.6pts

Blue projected score106.2pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.4
Score range: 85–144
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 457 vs event baseline 114.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

412.5Season APEX448.8

29.8Auto35.3

61Teleop60.8

16.1Endgame9.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	47
teleop	77	169
endgame	64	49
foul	5	0
total	192	265

Result

Final score

192 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 114.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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