Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.33 – 157.59

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 393.4 ±15.6

810The Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 36.97Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

144Operation Orange

Season APEX 112.7Event APEX 41.43Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

5590Alumiboti

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 12.93Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.4 ±18.1

3838Roc City Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 87.14Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3951SUITS

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 46.16Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 24.29Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 810, 144, 5590

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 810, 144, 5590

Auto

17.5 20%

Teleop

56.4 64%

Endgame

13.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3838, 3951, 8503

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3838, 3951, 8503

Auto

35.6 23%

Teleop

93.6 61%

Endgame

25.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91.3pts

Blue projected score157.6pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.3
Score range: 70–179
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 116.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

393.4Season APEX327.4

17.5Auto35.6

56.4Teleop93.6

13.9Endgame25.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	21
teleop	5	71
endgame	3	13
foul	5	30
total	33	135

Result

Final score

33 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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