Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.86 – 62.65

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 48.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 422.4 ±16.4

1056Hot Rocks

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 39.14Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10223Crimson Jewels

Provisional

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 38.15Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 53.57Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416.7 ±17.3

3799Electric Fire

Provisional

Season APEX 98Event APEX 23.64Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3003TAN(X)

Season APEX 148.1Event APEX 18.05Rank 55Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 20.96Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1056, 10223, 3181

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1056, 10223, 3181

Auto

14.4 12%

Teleop

79.3 65%

Endgame

28.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3799, 3003, 4253

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3799, 3003, 4253

Auto

17.7 30%

Teleop

28.8 49%

Endgame

12.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score130.9pts

Blue projected score62.7pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.2
Score range: 42–152
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 114.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

422.4Season APEX416.7

14.4Auto17.7

79.3Teleop28.8

28.9Endgame12.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	7
teleop	129	66
endgame	47	13
foul	0	15
total	189	101

Result

Final score

189 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 48.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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