Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.01 – 72.15

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.8 ±20.5

564Longwood RoboLions

Season APEX 64.9Event APEX 35.29Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4093Hardwired

Provisional

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 11.43Rank 54Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1518Raider Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 20.29Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.5 ±15

9767Magnificat MagnifiBots

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 11.43Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6423Ward Melville Iron Patriots

Season APEX 83Event APEX 11.14Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1126SPARX

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 49.58Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 564, 4093, 1518

/ 100 compat

Projected

67 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 564, 4093, 1518

Auto

15.2 23%

Teleop

39.1 60%

Endgame

10.6 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9767, 6423, 1126

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9767, 6423, 1126

Auto

10.6 15%

Teleop

38.8 57%

Endgame

19.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score67pts

Blue projected score72.2pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.1
Score range: 45–94
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 86 vs event baseline 121.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.8Season APEX276.5

15.2Auto10.6

39.1Teleop38.8

10.6Endgame19.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	10
teleop	20	29
endgame	2	7
foul	5	0
total	40	46

Result

Final score

40 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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