Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.29 – 126.93

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.4 ±13.5

20The Rocketeers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 48.29Rank 40Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 34Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1468Hicksville J-Birds

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 22Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.9 ±13.9

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 69.5Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

578Fairport Robotics

Season APEX 77Event APEX 35.43Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

432The Final Countdown

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 22Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 20, 10922, 1468

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 20, 10922, 1468

Auto

16.6 17%

Teleop

56.9 58%

Endgame

25.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3173, 578, 432

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3173, 578, 432

Auto

30.1 26%

Teleop

66.0 57%

Endgame

19.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score104.3pts

Blue projected score126.9pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.6
Score range: 82–149
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 199 vs event baseline 123.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.4Season APEX334.9

16.6Auto30.1

56.9Teleop66

25.1Endgame19.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	19
teleop	36	44
endgame	36	41
foul	0	0
total	95	104

Result

Final score

95 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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