Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.57 – 132.59

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

178 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 75.5 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.9 ±15

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 25.71Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 49.43Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4458Infernobotix

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 51.43Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.6 ±16.6

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX -Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7030The ROBOlympians

Provisional

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 49.43Rank 32Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7903Tigers

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 62.29Rank 53Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 271, 1405, 4458

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 271, 1405, 4458

Auto

26.3 22%

Teleop

62.0 51%

Endgame

32.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 48, 7030, 7903

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 48, 7030, 7903

Auto

38.6 30%

Teleop

69.3 53%

Endgame

21.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score126.6pts

Blue projected score132.6pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6
Score range: 104–156
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 211 vs event baseline 125.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.9Season APEX317.6

26.3Auto32.3

62Teleop58.9

32.6Endgame17.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	21
teleop	96	3
endgame	65	9
foul	0	0
total	178	33

Result

Final score

178 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 75.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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