Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

122.74 – 171.93

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 2.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357 ±14.1

810The Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 31.43Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

564Longwood RoboLions

Season APEX 64.9Event APEX 14.68Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 76.63Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383.1 ±16.8

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 94.1Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 85.91Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7030The ROBOlympians

Provisional

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -8.08Rank 32Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 810, 564, 10922

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 810, 564, 10922

Auto

33.0 28%

Teleop

61.8 52%

Endgame

24.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5528, 1405, 7030

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5528, 1405, 7030

Auto

42.4 26%

Teleop

84.1 51%

Endgame

37.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score122.7pts

Blue projected score171.9pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.2
Score range: 94–201
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 292 vs event baseline 162.4.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357Season APEX383.1

33Auto42.4

61.8Teleop84.1

24.4Endgame37.9

37Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	47
teleop	67	87
endgame	26	34
foul	0	5
total	119	173

Result

Final score

119 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 2.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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