Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

362.63 – 302.15

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

345 – 346

Prediction missed · off by 30.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 856.4 ±8.7

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 65.95Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 162.8Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 133.88Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 604.1 ±10.4

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 124.63Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 75.32Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 102.2Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 48, 3015, 694

/ 100 compat

Projected

362.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 48, 3015, 694

Auto

84.9 24%

Teleop

197.5 56%

Endgame

67.8 19%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3181, 10922, 1787

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3181, 10922, 1787

Auto

66.2 24%

Teleop

147.7 52%

Endgame

67.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score362.6pts

Blue projected score302.2pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.5
Score range: 273–392
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 691 vs event baseline 160.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

856.4Season APEX604.1

84.9Auto66.2

197.5Teleop147.7

67.8Endgame67.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	89
teleop	184	155
endgame	65	77
foul	10	25
total	345	346

Result

Final score

345 – 346

Prediction missed · off by 30.7 pts

Match videos

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