Final · Finals 2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
369.83 – 299.42
71%29%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
314 – 324
Prediction missed · off by 40.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 856.4 ±8.7
Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 68.38Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 165.18Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 136.27Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 604.1 ±10.4
Season APEX 233Event APEX 123.66Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 74.58Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 101.18Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 48, 3015, 694
82
/ 100 compatProjected
369.8 pts
~2.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 48, 3015, 694
Auto
85.3 24%
Teleop
199.4 56%
Endgame
72.3 20%
Strengths
- · 3015 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3181, 10922, 1787
83
/ 100 compatProjected
299.4 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 3181, 10922, 1787
Auto
64.4 23%
Teleop
149.9 53%
Endgame
66.1 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.06
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score369.8pts
Blue projected score299.4pts
Red win probability71%
Event bonus sample198alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 42%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 70.4
- Score range
- 270–399
- Upset likelihood
- 29%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Match context
Upset
Close match
High scoring
Playoff
Combined score 638 vs event baseline 158.9.
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
856.4Season APEX604.1
85.3Auto64.4
199.4Teleop149.9
72.3Endgame66.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 83 | 82 |
| teleop | 184 | 128 |
| endgame | 37 | 79 |
| foul | 10 | 35 |
| total | 314 | 324 |
Result
Final score
314 – 324
Prediction missed · off by 40.2 pts
Match videos
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