Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

364.54 – 289.45

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

404 – 379

Prediction correct · off by 64.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 856.4 ±8.7

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 133.83Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 163.61Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 67.1Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 604.1 ±10.4

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 120.07Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 71.15Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 98.23Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 694, 3015, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

364.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 694, 3015, 48

Auto

83.1 24%

Teleop

200.3 57%

Endgame

68.6 19%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3181, 10922, 1787

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3181, 10922, 1787

Auto

59.7 22%

Teleop

146.1 54%

Endgame

65.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score364.5pts

Blue projected score289.5pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.1
Score range: 261–393
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 783 vs event baseline 156.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

856.4Season APEX604.1

83.1Auto59.7

200.3Teleop146.1

68.6Endgame65.8

0Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	101
teleop	195	179
endgame	94	69
foul	15	30
total	404	379

Result

Final score

404 – 379

Prediction correct · off by 64.5 pts

Match videos

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