Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

240.86 – 0.45

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

1 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 120.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.3 ±17.7

2340Mercy Robotics-Xcentrics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 105.52Rank 7Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3799Electric Fire

Provisional

Season APEX 98Event APEX 45.98Rank 10Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 89.36Rank 8Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±40

9971Off-Season Demo Team 9971

Season APEX -Event APEX 0.15Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

9970Off-Season Demo Team 9970

Season APEX -Event APEX 0.15Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

9978Off-Season Demo Team 9978

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0.15Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2340, 3799, 1405

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.9 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2340, 3799, 1405

Auto

35.8 15%

Teleop

146.4 63%

Endgame

51.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9971, 9970, 9978

/ 100 compat

Projected

0.5 pts

~0.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9971, 9970, 9978

Auto

0.0 0%

Teleop

0.0 0%

Endgame

0.0 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.55 · Blue 0.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score240.9pts

Blue projected score0.5pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 240.4
Score range: -32–273
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 1 vs event baseline 179.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.3Season APEX0

35.8Auto0

146.4Teleop0

51.4Endgame0

16Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	0
teleop	0	0
endgame	0	0
foul	0	0
total	1	0

Result

Final score

1 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 120.2 pts