Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

248.13 – 175.81

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 28 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 549.1 ±12.9

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX -2.82Rank 14Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 82.28Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 168.67Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.3 ±13.4

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 88.97Rank 4Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX -5.14Rank 13Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 91.98Rank 9Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4930, 3181, 424

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.1 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4930, 3181, 424

Auto

36.4 15%

Teleop

147.6 61%

Endgame

58.2 24%

Strengths

· 424 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1507, 191, 1511

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.8 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1507, 191, 1511

Auto

32.8 19%

Teleop

89.8 53%

Endgame

48.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score248.1pts

Blue projected score175.8pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.3
Score range: 145–279
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 173.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

549.1Season APEX478.3

36.4Auto32.8

147.6Teleop89.8

58.2Endgame48.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	34
teleop	82	99
endgame	59	40
foul	0	0
total	195	173

Result

Final score

195 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 28 pts