Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.69 – 96.81

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

1 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 170.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.3 ±13.4

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 115Rank 9Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 112.11Rank 4Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 17.58Rank 13Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±40

9971Off-Season Demo Team 9971

Season APEX -Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

9970Off-Season Demo Team 9970

Season APEX -Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

9978Off-Season Demo Team 9978

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1511, 1507, 191

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.7 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1511, 1507, 191

Auto

44.9 19%

Teleop

125.3 52%

Endgame

68.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9971, 9970, 9978

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.8 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9971, 9970, 9978

Auto

29.0 30%

Teleop

48.4 50%

Endgame

19.4 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score244.7pts

Blue projected score96.8pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.9
Score range: 62–280
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 1 vs event baseline 193.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478.3Season APEX0

44.9Auto-

125.3Teleop-

68.8Endgame-

44Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	0
teleop	0	0
endgame	0	0
foul	0	0
total	1	0

Result

Final score

1 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 170.3 pts