Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

350.44 – 101.4

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

1 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 225.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 549.1 ±12.9

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 114.02Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 206.38Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 30.04Rank 14Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±56.6

9973Off-Season Demo Team 9973

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9972Off-Season Demo Team 9972

Season APEX -Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

9977Off-Season Demo Team 9977

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3181, 424, 4930

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.4 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3181, 424, 4930

Auto

50.1 15%

Teleop

209.2 61%

Endgame

84.4 25%

Strengths

· 424 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9973, 9972, 9977

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.4 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9973, 9972, 9977

Auto

30.4 30%

Teleop

50.7 50%

Endgame

20.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score350.4pts

Blue projected score101.4pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 249
Score range: 64–387
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 1 vs event baseline 202.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

549.1Season APEX0

50.1Auto-

209.2Teleop-

84.4Endgame-

15Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	0
teleop	0	0
endgame	0	0
foul	0	0
total	1	0

Result

Final score

1 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 225.4 pts