Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.02 – 272

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

239 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 66.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 351.7 ±16

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 52.02Rank 11Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3838Roc City Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 23.74Rank 6Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 40.26Rank 12Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 486.3 ±17.7

2340Mercy Robotics-Xcentrics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 114.54Rank 7Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3799Electric Fire

Provisional

Season APEX 98Event APEX 56.28Rank 10Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 101.18Rank 8Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3173, 3838, 2228

/ 100 compat

Projected

116 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3173, 3838, 2228

Auto

33.7 31%

Teleop

57.2 52%

Endgame

19.5 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2340, 3799, 1405

/ 100 compat

Projected

272 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2340, 3799, 1405

Auto

46.7 18%

Teleop

166.2 64%

Endgame

46.0 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score116pts

Blue projected score272pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -156
Score range: 83–305
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 521 vs event baseline 185.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

351.7Season APEX486.3

33.7Auto46.7

57.2Teleop166.2

19.5Endgame46

31Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	32
teleop	123	169
endgame	47	81
foul	0	0
total	239	282

Result

Final score

239 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 66.5 pts