Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

217.99 – 228.49

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

247 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 26.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 549.1 ±12.9

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX -18.24Rank 14Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 74.62Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 161.61Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.3 ±13.4

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 108.43Rank 4Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 11.25Rank 13Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 108.81Rank 9Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4930, 3181, 424

/ 100 compat

Projected

218 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4930, 3181, 424

Auto

47.2 22%

Teleop

118.6 55%

Endgame

48.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1507, 191, 1511

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.5 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1507, 191, 1511

Auto

35.7 16%

Teleop

125.8 56%

Endgame

64.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score218pts

Blue projected score228.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.5
Score range: 186–260
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 452 vs event baseline 180.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

549.1Season APEX478.3

47.2Auto35.7

118.6Teleop125.8

48.8Endgame64.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	32
teleop	101	143
endgame	67	25
foul	5	5
total	247	205

Result

Final score

247 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 26.3 pts