Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.84 – 196.83

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

352 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 73.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.3 ±13.4

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 101.18Rank 4Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 3.98Rank 13Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 101.68Rank 9Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 486.3 ±17.7

2340Mercy Robotics-Xcentrics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 93.27Rank 7Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3799Electric Fire

Provisional

Season APEX 98Event APEX 29.98Rank 10Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 73.58Rank 8Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1507, 191, 1511

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.8 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1507, 191, 1511

Auto

34.4 17%

Teleop

112.3 55%

Endgame

57.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2340, 3799, 1405

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.8 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2340, 3799, 1405

Auto

27.2 14%

Teleop

120.1 63%

Endgame

43.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score206.8pts

Blue projected score196.8pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10
Score range: 165–239
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 547 vs event baseline 177.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478.3Season APEX486.3

34.4Auto27.2

112.3Teleop120.1

57Endgame43.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	39
teleop	202	111
endgame	106	45
foul	0	0
total	352	195

Result

Final score

352 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 73.5 pts