Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

299.7 – 239.35

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

402 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 99.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 567.9 ±16.4

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 108.83Rank 5Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10223Crimson Jewels

Provisional

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX -1.92Rank 15Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 192.79Rank 1Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 549.1 ±12.9

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX -10.17Rank 14Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 80.57Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 168.95Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1591, 10223, 340

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.7 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1591, 10223, 340

Auto

48.9 17%

Teleop

169.7 58%

Endgame

76.2 26%

Strengths

· 340 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4930, 3181, 424

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.3 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4930, 3181, 424

Auto

41.7 18%

Teleop

133.5 57%

Endgame

59.6 25%

Strengths

· 424 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score299.7pts

Blue projected score239.3pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.4
Score range: 208–331
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 545 vs event baseline 173.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

567.9Season APEX549.1

48.9Auto41.7

169.7Teleop133.5

76.2Endgame59.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	113	81
teleop	215	62
endgame	44	0
foul	30	0
total	402	143

Result

Final score

402 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 99.3 pts