Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.8 – 121.15

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

331 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 93 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.3 ±13.4

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 90.21Rank 4Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX -5.1Rank 13Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 91.69Rank 9Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.7 ±16

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 40.24Rank 12Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3838Roc City Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 27.11Rank 6Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 53.8Rank 11Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1507, 191, 1511

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.8 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1507, 191, 1511

Auto

33.0 19%

Teleop

92.9 54%

Endgame

46.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2228, 3838, 3173

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.2 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2228, 3838, 3173

Auto

34.8 30%

Teleop

61.4 52%

Endgame

20.9 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score176.8pts

Blue projected score121.2pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.7
Score range: 89–209
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 484 vs event baseline 177.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478.3Season APEX351.7

33Auto34.8

92.9Teleop61.4

46.8Endgame20.9

0Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	17
teleop	193	98
endgame	95	33
foul	0	5
total	331	153

Result

Final score

331 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 93 pts