Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

210.61 – 245.42

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

174 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 65.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 501.3 ±17.3

10223Crimson Jewels

Provisional

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 13.71Rank 15Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2340Mercy Robotics-Xcentrics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 90.73Rank 7Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 106.17Rank 9Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 473.5 ±13.5

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 205.78Rank 1Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 39.17Rank 12Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 0.47Rank 14Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10223, 2340, 1511

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.6 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10223, 2340, 1511

Auto

35.5 17%

Teleop

114.7 56%

Endgame

56.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 340, 2228, 4930

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.4 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 340, 2228, 4930

Auto

52.8 22%

Teleop

141.9 59%

Endgame

45.5 19%

Strengths

· 340 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score210.6pts

Blue projected score245.4pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.8
Score range: 175–281
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 514 vs event baseline 199.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

501.3Season APEX473.5

35.5Auto52.8

114.7Teleop141.9

56.3Endgame45.5

0Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	76
teleop	89	218
endgame	42	41
foul	0	5
total	174	340

Result

Final score

174 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 65.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable