Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

167.23 – 126.04

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

172 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.2 ±13.4

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 7.36Rank 13Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 107.42Rank 4Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 52.45Rank 11Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.4 ±19

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 106.17Rank 9Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1450XQ Robotix Team 1450

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -9.34Rank 17Record 0-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3838Roc City Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 29.21Rank 6Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 191, 1507, 3173

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.2 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 191, 1507, 3173

Auto

43.6 27%

Teleop

104.8 64%

Endgame

15.0 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1511, 1450, 3838

/ 100 compat

Projected

126 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1511, 1450, 3838

Auto

16.5 13%

Teleop

59.9 47%

Endgame

50.7 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score167.2pts

Blue projected score126pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.2
Score range: 90–203
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 199.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.2Season APEX349.4

43.6Auto16.5

104.8Teleop59.9

15Endgame50.7

23Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	12
teleop	112	6
endgame	13	11
foul	0	0
total	172	29

Result

Final score

172 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable