Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

339.06 – 151.65

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

401 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 642.2 ±12.2

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 180.19Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 89.81Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 69.06Rank 8Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 399.9 ±17.7

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 124.16Rank 5Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3799Electric Fire

Provisional

Season APEX 98Event APEX 27.02Rank 10Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 0.47Rank 14Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 424, 3181, 1405

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.1 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 424, 3181, 1405

Auto

57.3 17%

Teleop

196.5 59%

Endgame

80.0 24%

Strengths

· 424 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1591, 3799, 4930

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.7 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1591, 3799, 4930

Auto

28.7 19%

Teleop

53.8 36%

Endgame

65.2 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score339.1pts

Blue projected score151.7pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 187.4
Score range: 116–375
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 539 vs event baseline 199.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

642.2Season APEX399.9

57.3Auto28.7

196.5Teleop53.8

80Endgame65.2

0Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	6
teleop	297	66
endgame	47	66
foul	0	0
total	401	138

Result

Final score

401 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable