Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

308.93 – 125.08

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

181 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 67.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.6 ±12.8

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 123.77Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 44Rank 12Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 141.16Rank 5Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.7 ±17.5

3838Roc City Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 17.35Rank 6Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 8.69Rank 13Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2340Mercy Robotics-Xcentrics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 99.04Rank 7Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3181, 2228, 1591

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.9 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3181, 2228, 1591

Auto

42.3 14%

Teleop

168.0 54%

Endgame

101.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3838, 191, 2340

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.1 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3838, 191, 2340

Auto

31.8 29%

Teleop

77.8 71%

Endgame

-0.2 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score308.9pts

Blue projected score125.1pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 183.9
Score range: 86–348
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 299 vs event baseline 216.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.6Season APEX402.7

42.3Auto31.8

168Teleop77.8

101.6Endgame-0.2

30Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	41
teleop	68	55
endgame	35	22
foul	0	0
total	181	118

Result

Final score

181 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 67.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable