Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

201.26 – 227.68

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 20 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 435.2 ±17.3

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 180.19Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10223Crimson Jewels

Provisional

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 13.71Rank 15Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 7.36Rank 13Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 547.9 ±12.7

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 106.17Rank 9Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 52.45Rank 11Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 69.06Rank 8Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 424, 10223, 191

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.3 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 424, 10223, 191

Auto

35.8 19%

Teleop

108.5 59%

Endgame

40.9 22%

Strengths

· 424 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1511, 3173, 1405

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.7 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1511, 3173, 1405

Auto

27.1 12%

Teleop

137.9 60%

Endgame

65.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score201.3pts

Blue projected score227.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.4
Score range: 165–264
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 199.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

435.2Season APEX547.9

35.8Auto27.1

108.5Teleop137.9

40.9Endgame65.5

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	20
teleop	117	106
endgame	23	51
foul	25	15
total	197	192

Result

Final score

197 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 20 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable