Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

207.68 – 18.55

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

280 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.3 ±13.4

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 11.13Rank 14Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 96Rank 9Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 100.55Rank 4Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.3 ±22.5

7030The ROBOlympians

Provisional

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -18.64Rank 16Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3799Electric Fire

Provisional

Season APEX 98Event APEX 31.56Rank 10Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10223Crimson Jewels

Provisional

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 5.63Rank 15Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4930, 1511, 1507

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.7 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4930, 1511, 1507

Auto

26.7 13%

Teleop

101.4 49%

Endgame

78.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7030, 3799, 10223

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.5 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7030, 3799, 10223

Auto

11.3 100%

Teleop

-21.6 0%

Endgame

20.3 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score207.7pts

Blue projected score18.5pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 189.1
Score range: -19–246
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 212.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.3Season APEX252.3

26.7Auto11.3

101.4Teleop-21.6

78.8Endgame20.3

36Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	10
teleop	167	47
endgame	64	15
foul	0	0
total	280	72

Result

Final score

280 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable