Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

299.27 – 158.54

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

211 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587.1 ±12.9

2340Mercy Robotics-Xcentrics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 109Rank 7Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 50.22Rank 11Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 140.05Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416.3 ±16.8

3799Electric Fire

Provisional

Season APEX 98Event APEX 26.12Rank 10Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 85.99Rank 9Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 46.43Rank 12Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2340, 3173, 3181

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.3 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2340, 3173, 3181

Auto

56.8 19%

Teleop

188.4 63%

Endgame

53.7 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3799, 1511, 2228

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.5 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3799, 1511, 2228

Auto

25.5 19%

Teleop

72.9 53%

Endgame

38.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score299.3pts

Blue projected score158.5pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 140.7
Score range: 121–337
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 213.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587.1Season APEX416.3

56.8Auto25.5

188.4Teleop72.9

53.7Endgame38.3

48Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	30
teleop	126	53
endgame	11	90
foul	0	0
total	211	173

Result

Final score

211 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable