Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

415.15 – 0

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

420 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 570.5 ±15.1

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 207.63Rank 1Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3838Roc City Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 21.53Rank 6Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 185.99Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251 ±20.5

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX -5.8Rank 14Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

10223Crimson Jewels

Provisional

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX -9.94Rank 15Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1450XQ Robotix Team 1450

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -31.12Rank 17Record 0-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 340, 3838, 424

/ 100 compat

Projected

415.2 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 340, 3838, 424

Auto

62.3 16%

Teleop

246.2 62%

Endgame

89.1 22%

Strengths

· 340 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4930, 10223, 1450

/ 100 compat

Projected

-46.9 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4930, 10223, 1450

Auto

10.3 0%

Teleop

-43.5 95%

Endgame

-12.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.65 · Blue 0.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score415.2pts

Blue projected score-46.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 415.2
Score range: -38–453
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 440 vs event baseline 212.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

570.5Season APEX251

62.3Auto10.3

246.2Teleop-43.5

89.1Endgame-12.8

74Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	9
teleop	250	9
endgame	116	2
foul	0	0
total	420	20

Result

Final score

420 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable