Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

143.59 – 202.85

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

232 – 316

Prediction correct · off by 100.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.2 ±17.3

1450XQ Robotix Team 1450

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -34Rank 17Record 0-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 83.55Rank 4Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2340Mercy Robotics-Xcentrics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 94.04Rank 7Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 556.6 ±12.9

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 9.66Rank 13Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 122.19Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 71Rank 9Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1450, 1507, 2340

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.6 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1450, 1507, 2340

Auto

59.2 43%

Teleop

68.8 50%

Endgame

10.5 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 191, 3181, 1511

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.9 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 191, 3181, 1511

Auto

0.9 0%

Teleop

119.4 59%

Endgame

83.3 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score143.6pts

Blue projected score202.9pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.3
Score range: 107–240
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 548 vs event baseline 208.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.2Season APEX556.6

59.2Auto0.9

68.8Teleop119.4

10.5Endgame83.3

44Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	70
teleop	135	171
endgame	40	75
foul	0	0
total	232	316

Result

Final score

232 – 316

Prediction correct · off by 100.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable