Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.39 – 138.44

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402 ±15

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 10.63Rank 13Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 17.62Rank 14Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 70.14Rank 8Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352.2 ±16

3838Roc City Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX -2.08Rank 6Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 80.76Rank 4Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 59.76Rank 12Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 191, 4930, 1405

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.4 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 191, 4930, 1405

Auto

22.3 23%

Teleop

93.2 98%

Endgame

-20.4 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3838, 1507, 2228

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.4 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3838, 1507, 2228

Auto

21.3 14%

Teleop

94.7 61%

Endgame

39.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score98.4pts

Blue projected score138.4pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40
Score range: 59–177
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 245 vs event baseline 214.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402Season APEX352.2

22.3Auto21.3

93.2Teleop94.7

-20.4Endgame39

35Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	25
teleop	41	79
endgame	41	12
foul	5	35
total	94	151

Result

Final score

94 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable