Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

218.73 – 114.63

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

522 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 203.3 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 677.1 ±12.2

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 37.67Rank 5Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 30.21Rank 9Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 150.85Rank 1Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390.6 ±19.3

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 81.56Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1450XQ Robotix Team 1450

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -11.26Rank 17Record 0-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3799Electric Fire

Provisional

Season APEX 98Event APEX 44.33Rank 10Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1591, 1511, 340

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.7 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1591, 1511, 340

Auto

60.2 27%

Teleop

124.1 56%

Endgame

37.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3181, 1450, 3799

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.6 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3181, 1450, 3799

Auto

21.0 20%

Teleop

48.0 45%

Endgame

37.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score218.7pts

Blue projected score114.6pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.1
Score range: 79–255
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 740 vs event baseline 197.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

677.1Season APEX390.6

60.2Auto21

124.1Teleop48

37.7Endgame37.2

143Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	41
teleop	271	112
endgame	206	60
foul	0	5
total	522	218

Result

Final score

522 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 203.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable