Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

119.49 – 107.04

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

134 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 412.8 ±16.2

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 0.47Rank 14Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3838Roc City Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 29.21Rank 6Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 89.81Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.4 ±20

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 124.16Rank 5Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7030The ROBOlympians

Provisional

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -7.78Rank 16Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1450XQ Robotix Team 1450

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -9.34Rank 17Record 0-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4930, 3838, 3181

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.5 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4930, 3838, 3181

Auto

35.6 29%

Teleop

56.8 47%

Endgame

29.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1591, 7030, 1450

/ 100 compat

Projected

107 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1591, 7030, 1450

Auto

24.5 22%

Teleop

43.9 40%

Endgame

41.3 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score119.5pts

Blue projected score107pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample72alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.4
Score range: 71–155
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 199.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

412.8Season APEX324.4

35.6Auto24.5

56.8Teleop43.9

29.5Endgame41.3

0Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	45
teleop	78	6
endgame	48	0
foul	0	0
total	134	51

Result

Final score

134 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable