Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

249.86 – 287.74

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

325 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 84.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.8 ±12.8

6648MechaSpartans

Season APEX 80.8Event APEX 25.75Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 106.3Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3419RoHawks

Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 117.81Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.7 ±13.9

2872CyberCats

Season APEX 180.6Event APEX 128.11Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3204Steampunk Penguins

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 18.58Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6985ENKA TECH

Season APEX 193.7Event APEX 141.05Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6648, 1601, 3419

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6648, 1601, 3419

Auto

41.6 17%

Teleop

139.2 56%

Endgame

68.3 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2872, 3204, 6985

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2872, 3204, 6985

Auto

68.1 24%

Teleop

157.4 55%

Endgame

58.7 21%

Strengths

· 6985 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score249.9pts

Blue projected score287.7pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.9
Score range: 223–315
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 519 vs event baseline 150.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.8Season APEX470.7

41.6Auto68.1

139.2Teleop157.4

68.3Endgame58.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	75
teleop	116	84
endgame	132	35
foul	5	0
total	325	194

Result

Final score

325 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 84.4 pts

Match videos

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