Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

243.74 – 154.83

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.2 ±15.3

333MEGALODONS

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 112.11Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6873The Generals

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 27.15Rank 41Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

334TechKnights

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 104.48Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 429.6 ±13.4

10229Event Horizon

Season APEX 145.5Event APEX 95.71Rank 16Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 5.2Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2601Steel Hawks

Season APEX 217.2Event APEX 53.92Rank 8Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 333, 6873, 334

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 333, 6873, 334

Auto

47.8 21%

Teleop

139.4 60%

Endgame

44.6 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10229, 4729, 2601

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10229, 4729, 2601

Auto

30.4 20%

Teleop

82.2 53%

Endgame

41.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score243.7pts

Blue projected score154.8pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.9
Score range: 129–270
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 453 vs event baseline 143.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.2Season APEX429.6

47.8Auto30.4

139.4Teleop82.2

44.6Endgame41.2

0Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	53
teleop	146	90
endgame	59	45
foul	5	0
total	265	188

Result

Final score

265 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 pts

Match videos

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