Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
334.18 – 177.9
87%13%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
160 – 247
Prediction missed · off by 121.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 416.7 ±13.9
Season APEX 180.6Event APEX 158.34Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 7.77Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89
Season APEX 193.7Event APEX 168.07Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.1 ±13.9
Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 6.65Rank 28Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 127.1Event APEX 96.01Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 75.24Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2872, 4571, 6985
79
/ 100 compatProjected
334.2 pts
~2.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 2872, 4571, 6985
Auto
53.1 16%
Teleop
204.1 62%
Endgame
74.4 22%
Strengths
- · 6985 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8739, 369, 6593
72
/ 100 compatProjected
177.9 pts
~0.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 8739, 369, 6593
Auto
35.8 21%
Teleop
95.6 56%
Endgame
39.9 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.74
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score334.2pts
Blue projected score177.9pts
Red win probability87%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 42%
Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 156.3
- Score range
- 152–360
- Upset likelihood
- 13%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
416.7Season APEX301.1
53.1Auto35.8
204.1Teleop95.6
74.4Endgame39.9
7Consistency16
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 69 | 42 |
| teleop | 65 | 115 |
| endgame | 21 | 55 |
| foul | 5 | 35 |
| total | 160 | 247 |
Result
Final score
160 – 247
Prediction missed · off by 121.6 pts
Match videos
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