Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

218.02 – 141.02

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

305 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.8 ±12.8

6648MechaSpartans

Season APEX 80.8Event APEX 15.37Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 90.7Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3419RoHawks

Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 111.95Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 320.2 ±19.2

5806Basement Lions

Season APEX 86.4Event APEX 23.65Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2344The Saunders Droid Factory

Provisional

Season APEX 118.7Event APEX 53.32Rank 7Record 7-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

354G-House Pirates

Provisional

Season APEX 115.1Event APEX 64.05Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6648, 1601, 3419

/ 100 compat

Projected

218 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6648, 1601, 3419

Auto

41.6 19%

Teleop

121.9 55%

Endgame

58.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5806, 2344, 354

/ 100 compat

Projected

141 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5806, 2344, 354

Auto

9.5 7%

Teleop

90.3 66%

Endgame

37.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score218pts

Blue projected score141pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77
Score range: 115–244
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 454 vs event baseline 141.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.8Season APEX320.2

41.6Auto9.5

121.9Teleop90.3

58Endgame37.3

39Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	23
teleop	189	67
endgame	57	44
foul	15	15
total	305	149

Result

Final score

305 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 pts

Match videos

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