Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

230.95 – 251.79

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

221 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 23.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.2 ±15.3

333MEGALODONS

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 103.25Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6873The Generals

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 25.13Rank 41Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

334TechKnights

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 102.57Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352.8 ±12.8

6648MechaSpartans

Season APEX 80.8Event APEX 27.03Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 107.88Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3419RoHawks

Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 116.88Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 333, 6873, 334

/ 100 compat

Projected

231 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 333, 6873, 334

Auto

42.2 19%

Teleop

131.7 60%

Endgame

46.3 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6648, 1601, 3419

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6648, 1601, 3419

Auto

45.6 18%

Teleop

131.3 52%

Endgame

73.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score231pts

Blue projected score251.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.8
Score range: 203–280
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 510 vs event baseline 154.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.2Season APEX352.8

42.2Auto45.6

131.7Teleop131.3

46.3Endgame73.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	28
teleop	131	179
endgame	64	77
foul	0	5
total	221	289

Result

Final score

221 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 23.6 pts

Match videos

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