Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
193.08 – 263.36
29%71%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
73 – 188
Prediction correct · off by 97.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.1 ±13.9
Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 16.93Rank 28Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 127.1Event APEX 105.19Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 70.96Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352.8 ±12.8
Season APEX 80.8Event APEX 31.61Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 111.36Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 120.39Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8739, 369, 6593
72
/ 100 compatProjected
193.1 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 8739, 369, 6593
Auto
36.5 20%
Teleop
99.1 54%
Endgame
48.2 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6648, 1601, 3419
81
/ 100 compatProjected
263.4 pts
~1.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 6648, 1601, 3419
Auto
47.0 18%
Teleop
134.8 52%
Endgame
79.9 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.84
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score193.1pts
Blue projected score263.4pts
Red win probability29%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 42%, blue 38%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -70.3
- Score range
- 165–291
- Upset likelihood
- 29%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
301.1Season APEX352.8
36.5Auto47
99.1Teleop134.8
48.2Endgame79.9
10Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 30 | 38 |
| teleop | 34 | 112 |
| endgame | 9 | 38 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 73 | 188 |
Result
Final score
73 – 188
Prediction correct · off by 97.7 pts
Match videos
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