Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.04 – 101.17

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

330 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 270.4 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 470.7 ±13

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX -Rank 1Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5298E-TECH CHARGERS

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX -Rank 39Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3952 Train Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 5.71Rank 33Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 710.9 ±11.1

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX -Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2601Steel Hawks

Season APEX 217.2Event APEX 26Rank 8Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

334TechKnights

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 56Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 694, 5298, 395

/ 100 compat

Projected

44 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 694, 5298, 395

Auto

15.2 36%

Teleop

19.7 46%

Endgame

7.7 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3015, 2601, 334

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3015, 2601, 334

Auto

19.2 19%

Teleop

63.3 63%

Endgame

17.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score44pts

Blue projected score101.2pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.1
Score range: 23–122
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 686 vs event baseline 115.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

470.7Season APEX710.9

3.7Auto13.4

0.6Teleop53.7

0Endgame13.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	43
teleop	166	161
endgame	89	147
foul	5	5
total	330	356

Result

Final score

330 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 270.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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