Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

46.12 – 10.54

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

46 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 86.2 ±20.5

3053VB Stingers

Provisional

Season APEX 7Event APEX 14.51Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4571Rambots

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 7.56Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10454UPC Raptors

Provisional

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 24.05Rank 22Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.6 ±18.2

9636Space Junk

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX -5.02Rank 45Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3390ANATOLIAN EAGLEBOTS

Provisional

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 20.42Rank 32Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3952 Train Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX -4.86Rank 33Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3053, 4571, 10454

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3053, 4571, 10454

Auto

-5.1 0%

Teleop

35.2 75%

Endgame

16.6 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9636, 3390, 395

/ 100 compat

Projected

10.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9636, 3390, 395

Auto

8.6 79%

Teleop

-5.7 0%

Endgame

8.0 73%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score46.1pts

Blue projected score10.5pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.6
Score range: -14–71
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 78 vs event baseline 139.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

86.2Season APEX200.6

-5.1Auto8.6

35.2Teleop-5.7

16.6Endgame8

57Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	10
teleop	20	12
endgame	14	5
foul	0	5
total	46	32

Result

Final score

46 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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