Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.94 – 222.43

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 270

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 154.1 ±18.2

10452RoboLions

Season APEX 27Event APEX 0.18Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9295Harlem Rails

Provisional

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 22.51Rank 31Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5123Mechadogs

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 22.25Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.7 ±16

334TechKnights

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 98.76Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

516StuyPlus

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 26.77Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4972BORUSAN ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 96.9Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10452, 9295, 5123

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.9 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10452, 9295, 5123

Auto

26.3 65%

Teleop

10.7 27%

Endgame

3.3 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 334, 516, 4972

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 334, 516, 4972

Auto

33.0 15%

Teleop

131.2 60%

Endgame

54.7 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.58 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score44.9pts

Blue projected score222.4pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -177.5
Score range: 20–247
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 138.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

154.1Season APEX377.7

26.3Auto33

10.7Teleop131.2

3.3Endgame54.7

62Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	40
teleop	8	170
endgame	18	60
foul	0	0
total	37	270

Result

Final score

37 – 270

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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