Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.08 – 116.08

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

78 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 44.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.5 ±16.3

8739Redhawk Robotics

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 12.17Rank 28Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6873The Generals

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 18.35Rank 41Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3204Steampunk Penguins

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 22.56Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.5 ±20

3017Patriots

Provisional

Season APEX 47.2Event APEX 6.22Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7036The Beta Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 14.72Rank 51Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 95.14Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8739, 6873, 3204

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8739, 6873, 3204

Auto

18.4 42%

Teleop

3.2 7%

Endgame

21.7 50%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3017, 7036, 1601

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3017, 7036, 1601

Auto

20.7 18%

Teleop

64.2 56%

Endgame

28.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score53.1pts

Blue projected score116.1pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63
Score range: 28–141
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 140.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.5Season APEX180.5

18.4Auto20.7

3.2Teleop64.2

21.7Endgame28.8

24Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	32
teleop	30	17
endgame	34	3
foul	0	0
total	78	52

Result

Final score

78 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 44.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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