Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

157.48 – 55.25

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

123 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.1 ±16

6648MechaSpartans

Season APEX 80.8Event APEX 27.32Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2601Steel Hawks

Season APEX 217.2Event APEX 63.07Rank 8Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

354G-House Pirates

Provisional

Season APEX 115.1Event APEX 67.09Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.2 ±20.5

10454UPC Raptors

Provisional

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 23.72Rank 22Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9636Space Junk

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX -2.89Rank 45Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

640Edison Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 100.2Event APEX 34.42Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6648, 2601, 354

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6648, 2601, 354

Auto

11.0 7%

Teleop

76.8 51%

Endgame

61.5 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10454, 9636, 640

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10454, 9636, 640

Auto

19.9 38%

Teleop

33.3 64%

Endgame

-1.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score157.5pts

Blue projected score55.3pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.2
Score range: 30–182
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 190 vs event baseline 139.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.1Season APEX189.2

11Auto19.9

76.8Teleop33.3

61.5Endgame-1.2

18Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	24
teleop	62	29
endgame	44	14
foul	0	0
total	123	67

Result

Final score

123 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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