Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

104.06 – 0

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.2 ±17.7

743Technobots

Provisional

Season APEX 55Event APEX 21.69Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 86.48Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

64018-bit RAMs

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX -4.11Rank 42Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.6 ±18.2

5806Basement Lions

Season APEX 86.4Event APEX -4.65Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3952 Train Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX -14.48Rank 33Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4383The P-TECH Fly-Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX 9.15Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 743, 1601, 6401

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 743, 1601, 6401

Auto

38.7 37%

Teleop

53.9 52%

Endgame

11.2 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5806, 395, 4383

/ 100 compat

Projected

-10 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5806, 395, 4383

Auto

9.8 0%

Teleop

-16.4 91%

Endgame

-11.5 64%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score104.1pts

Blue projected score-10pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.1
Score range: -25–129
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 140.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.2Season APEX204.6

38.7Auto9.8

53.9Teleop-16.4

11.2Endgame-11.5

39Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	14
teleop	79	34
endgame	28	6
foul	0	5
total	144	59

Result

Final score

144 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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