Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.88 – 92.57

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 49.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271 ±17.5

5806Basement Lions

Season APEX 86.4Event APEX 5.39Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 32.01Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4972BORUSAN ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 99.48Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.3 ±13.5

3952 Train Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX -20.95Rank 33Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6648MechaSpartans

Season APEX 80.8Event APEX 28.6Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3419RoHawks

Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 84.92Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5806, 4729, 4972

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5806, 4729, 4972

Auto

28.4 21%

Teleop

73.6 56%

Endgame

30.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 395, 6648, 3419

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 395, 6648, 3419

Auto

14.9 17%

Teleop

45.7 52%

Endgame

28.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score136.9pts

Blue projected score92.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.3
Score range: 68–162
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 140.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271Season APEX307.3

28.4Auto14.9

73.6Teleop45.7

30.2Endgame28

105Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	17
teleop	48	61
endgame	3	38
foul	0	5
total	67	121

Result

Final score

67 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 49.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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