Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.27 – 124.79

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

164 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 24 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.7 ±16.9

9295Harlem Rails

Provisional

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 20.15Rank 31Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3419RoHawks

Season APEX 153.4Event APEX 113.58Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 13.54Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 183.6 ±17.7

6024R Factor

Season APEX 58Event APEX 8.3Rank 47Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3053VB Stingers

Provisional

Season APEX 7Event APEX 10.37Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 106.12Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9295, 3419, 4729

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9295, 3419, 4729

Auto

24.4 17%

Teleop

78.2 55%

Endgame

39.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6024, 3053, 1601

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6024, 3053, 1601

Auto

27.6 22%

Teleop

64.4 51%

Endgame

35.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score147.3pts

Blue projected score124.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.5
Score range: 96–176
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 320 vs event baseline 160.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.7Season APEX183.6

24.4Auto27.6

78.2Teleop64.4

39.5Endgame35.4

29Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	26
teleop	76	79
endgame	61	51
foul	5	0
total	164	156

Result

Final score

164 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 24 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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