Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.61 – 32.42

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

280 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433.6 ±19.1

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 174.05Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1635TECHNOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 66.1Event APEX 7.91Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

743Technobots

Provisional

Season APEX 55Event APEX 13.65Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 140.8 ±18.2

3053VB Stingers

Provisional

Season APEX 7Event APEX 12.99Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10452RoboLions

Season APEX 27Event APEX 7.37Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9030Qarabagh MecHack

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 12.06Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3015, 1635, 743

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3015, 1635, 743

Auto

43.9 22%

Teleop

90.9 46%

Endgame

60.8 31%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3053, 10452, 9030

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.4 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3053, 10452, 9030

Auto

11.4 31%

Teleop

7.8 22%

Endgame

17.0 47%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score195.6pts

Blue projected score32.4pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 163.2
Score range: 7–221
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 139.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433.6Season APEX140.8

43.9Auto11.4

90.9Teleop7.8

60.8Endgame17

100Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	14
teleop	164	7
endgame	24	11
foul	0	0
total	280	32

Result

Final score

280 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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