Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

16.99 – 149.99

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 55.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.4 ±20.5

5421BirchBots

Provisional

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX -1.4Rank 30Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4299BCS RoboSharks

Provisional

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 25.73Rank 40Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4571Rambots

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX -7.34Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 386.1 ±12.7

10229Event Horizon

Season APEX 145.5Event APEX 64.14Rank 16Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8739Redhawk Robotics

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 9Rank 28Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

334TechKnights

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 76.85Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5421, 4299, 4571

/ 100 compat

Projected

17 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5421, 4299, 4571

Auto

8.0 61%

Teleop

-3.2 0%

Endgame

8.4 64%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10229, 8739, 334

/ 100 compat

Projected

150 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10229, 8739, 334

Auto

29.1 20%

Teleop

66.1 46%

Endgame

49.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score17pts

Blue projected score150pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -133
Score range: -8–175
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 139.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.4Season APEX386.1

8Auto29.1

-3.2Teleop66.1

8.4Endgame49.5

42Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	59
teleop	21	130
endgame	16	34
foul	0	5
total	50	228

Result

Final score

50 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 55.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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