Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

171.4 – 227.34

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

176 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.4 ±13.9

333MEGALODONS

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 101.07Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6648MechaSpartans

Season APEX 80.8Event APEX 29.51Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5298E-TECH CHARGERS

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 40.82Rank 39Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.6 ±15

3004Bx Quixote

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 45.66Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3204Steampunk Penguins

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 39.32Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2872CyberCats

Season APEX 180.6Event APEX 142.36Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 333, 6648, 5298

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 333, 6648, 5298

Auto

41.9 26%

Teleop

82.0 51%

Endgame

35.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3004, 3204, 2872

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3004, 3204, 2872

Auto

46.0 21%

Teleop

134.3 60%

Endgame

42.2 19%

Strengths

· 2872 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score171.4pts

Blue projected score227.3pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.9
Score range: 146–252
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 373 vs event baseline 138.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.4Season APEX360.6

41.9Auto46

82Teleop134.3

35.8Endgame42.2

10Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	41
teleop	70	83
endgame	47	73
foul	5	0
total	176	197

Result

Final score

176 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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