Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.24 – 134.77

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

126 – 151

Prediction missed · off by 21.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.2 ±18.8

6873The Generals

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 30.52Rank 41Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

369High Voltage Robotics

Season APEX 127.1Event APEX 114.68Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9295Harlem Rails

Provisional

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 7.04Rank 31Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381 ±19

2601Steel Hawks

Season APEX 217.2Event APEX 64.31Rank 8Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4383The P-TECH Fly-Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX 10.02Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

2344The Saunders Droid Factory

Provisional

Season APEX 118.7Event APEX 60.44Rank 7Record 7-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6873, 369, 9295

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6873, 369, 9295

Auto

25.4 19%

Teleop

71.0 53%

Endgame

38.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2601, 4383, 2344

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2601, 4383, 2344

Auto

14.5 11%

Teleop

72.4 56%

Endgame

42.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score152.2pts

Blue projected score134.8pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.5
Score range: 110–177
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 136.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.2Season APEX381

25.4Auto14.5

71Teleop72.4

38.6Endgame42.5

18Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	23
teleop	75	95
endgame	22	33
foul	0	0
total	126	151

Result

Final score

126 – 151

Prediction missed · off by 21.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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